XAUTUSD short — 31 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on XAUTUSD entered at 4,412.3 and stopped out at 4,443.5 after 4.5 hours, closing at -0.71%.
| Asset | XAUTUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-31 02:54 |
| Entry | 4,412.3 |
| Stop-loss | 4,443.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,393.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,381 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.00 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,443.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.71% |
| Time open | 4.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Bear trend — MTF bear_aligned on 5m/15m/1h (4h mixed but RSI 19 deeply oversold), 1h ADX 43.9 with positive slope +5.34 (trend accelerating down), choppiness 33.7 (<38, genuinely trending), ER-10 0.92 (very clean one-way move down), Hurst 0.47 mildly mean-reverting, HMM calm full confidence. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short — higher-TF trend is down, macro gold -1.73% 1d / -2.04% 5d, net moves negative across 4h/12h/24h, taker ratio 0.88 (sellers), OI accelerating_down. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — clean bear stack with rising ADX and macro gold rolling over is the dominant cluster; XAUT tracks XAU tightly (spot -1.12% today) and this asset's short book wins ~72%. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI at 10.4 and 4h RSI 19 are deeply oversold with z-score -2.29 at 5d/20d lows — a mean-reversion bounce could stop this out. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4412.26; stop above recent structure at 4443.5 (~0.71%, ~within 24h ATR); stretch target down at 4381.0 (~0.71%, R:R ~1.0) into fresh lows, reachable given avg 24h traversal 0.71% and continued downtrend. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but extreme oversold caps upside — p_tp1 44, p_sl 33, p_expire 23.
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