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XAUTUSD short — 20 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on XAUTUSD entered at 4,126.3 and stopped out at 4,157 after 13.1 hours, closing at -0.74%.
| Asset | XAUTUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-20 01:24 |
| Entry | 4,126.3 |
| Stop-loss | 4,157 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,104.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,089.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,157 |
| Realized P&L | -0.74% |
| Time open | 13.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Low-vol bear trend — MTF 4/4 full_bearish (all TFs bear_aligned), 1h ADX 20.8 slope +0.42 (above threshold, firming mildly), choppiness 35.4 (edging into trending), ER-10 0.51/ER-30 0.20 (modest down-netting), Hurst 0.44 slightly mean-reverting, HMM calm full-conf, RV-24h at 21st pctile (quiet); gold spot -1.02%/24h. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net moves firmly negative (4h -0.57%, 12h -0.77%, 24h -1.11%), full bearish MTF, gold macro soft. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Trend-aligned short — the dominant cluster is full_bearish MTF stack confirmed by negative net moves across all horizons plus gold spot -1.02%/24h driving the token; funding z -1.35 (unwinding) and OI fading -0.85% show no fresh long support. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold (1h 25, 15m 24.5) with price sitting exactly on the 5d_low (+0.00%) and z-score -1.88 — a relief bounce / reclaim of the broken low would invalidate; top-trader pos ratio 4.05 is heavily long, a crowded contra signal. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4126.26; stop above the recent 4h swing / invalidation at 4157.0 (~0.75% = within 7d range ~1.1%); stretch target down at 4089.5 (~0.89% = ~1.2x stop distance, inside clamps) toward continuation of the down-leg. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold tape caps downside follow-through; p_tp1 44, p_sl 36, p_expire 20.
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