AAVEUSD long — 22 Jul 2026 (expired)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 97.01 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 96.25 with a price move of -0.78%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-22 14:50 |
| Entry | 97.01 |
| Stop-loss | 94.6 |
| Take-profit 1 | 99.179 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 100.625 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 96.25 |
| Realized P&L | -0.78% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bullish mtf_alignment (4/4), 1h ADX 40.6 rising (+2.7 slope), 4h ADX 31.7, Hurst 0.59 persistent, funding mildly positive — a genuine, strengthening bull_trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence favors long clearly — every voting TF is bull-aligned, price sits near 5d high (-0.82%) and +10.5% off the lows; no coherent short case. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is the ADX-confirmed trend stack plus positioning — top-trader position ratio 1.40 long, taker ratio 1.03, net_move_4h +1.04%, oi_5m_z +1.39; this is trend-aligned continuation and AAVE's own 30d WR (50%) is the best in the universe. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h RSI 68.9 is near-overbought and oi_momentum_state is accelerating_down with recent OI shedding (-0.76% recent half) — a stall/pullback here would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 97.01; stop below the intraday pivot / prior consolidation at 94.60 (~2.5% risk, beyond the invalidation); stretch TP at 100.65 (~3.75% / ~1.5x risk), just past the round 100 into 5d-high territory, reachable given avg_move_24h 2.8% and p90 daily range 10.7%. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but overbought and RV in the 82nd percentile — realistic 45/34/21.
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