AAVEUSD long — 27 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 101.26 and stopped out at 98.07 after 22.8 hours, closing at -3.15%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-27 00:03 |
| Entry | 101.26 |
| Stop-loss | 98.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 103.924 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 105.7 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.41 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 98.07 |
| Realized P&L | -3.15% |
| Time open | 22.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bullish MTF (4/4), ADX_1h 49 rising (slope +5.96), Hurst 0.56, choppiness 30.4, ER_10 0.58 — a clean, strengthening bull trend, HMM calm at full posterior. 2. LEAN CHECK: strongly one-sided long — trend, flow and momentum all point up; long is the trade. 3. THESIS: OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +3.16, oi_15m_z +3.21, agg_oi +17.2%) into a +9.8% 24h thrust with taker 1.36 and top-trader pos ratio 1.45 long — fresh money chasing the breakout, trend-aligned; price sits just -0.37% off the 90d high. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought across all TFs (78/79/70) and rolling z +2.56 mean the move is extended — a failed break of the 90d high with funding_z 1.40 unwinding would flush longs. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent breakout shelf / 4h structure at 98.10 (~3.1% risk, beyond the intraday consolidation low, past invalidation); stretch TP at 105.70 (~4.4% reward) at prior extension, ~1.4x risk, reachable given 24h avg traversal 2.6% and RV in the 100th pctile. 6. EXPECTATION: extended but strongly trending; TP first the modal path but overbought raises pullback odds.
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