AAVEUSD long — 3 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 92.48 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 92.07 with a price move of -0.44%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-03 10:15 |
| Entry | 92.48 |
| Stop-loss | 89.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 94.772 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 96.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.45 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 92.07 |
| Realized P&L | -0.44% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (0/4 alignment), 1h ADX 12.3 and fading (slope -0.98), ADX-20 13.6, choppiness 50.8, ER-10 0.14 / ER-30 0.02 — classic no-trend chop with 1h bear-aligned but 15m bull-aligned; HMM calm. 2. LEAN CHECK: not fully two-sided — OI is accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +1.27, oi_15m_z +1.32, recent-half +2.37%) with top-trader pos ratio 1.51 long-skewed and taker 1.13, giving a modest long tilt into a slightly oversold z (-0.97) near the 5d low (+3.4% above it). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: rising OI + long-tilted top traders + positive recent 4h net move (+0.71%) + bounce-off-low positioning argue a mild mean-reversion long from an oversold pullback; this asset's long track record is thin but WR 45% overall and prior "OI accelerating_up + top-trader long" longs have both won and lost. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h EMA bear-aligned with fading ADX means the up-tilt is fragile — a break below the 5d low (~89.5) would confirm the downtrend and invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 92.48, stop below the recent swing / 5d-low structure at 89.85 (~2.85% risk, beyond invalidation), stretch TP at 96.30 (~4.1% up, ~1.45x risk) toward the 5d-high resistance zone, reachable given avg 24h move 3.3% and p90 range 8.2%. 6. EXPECTATION: chop regime with weak WR — modest edge; p_tp1 38, p_sl 40, p_expire 22.
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