BTCUSD short — 3 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 62,301.4 and stopped out at 63,180 after 5.4 hours, closing at -1.41%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-03 08:30 |
| Entry | 62,301.4 |
| Stop-loss | 63,180 |
| Take-profit 1 | 61,550.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 61,050 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.42 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 63,180 |
| Realized P&L | -1.41% |
| Time open | 5.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA stacks all bear_aligned (4/4 lower TFs), 4h mixed; regime tagged bear_trend, ADX_1h 21 rising (+3.3 slope), choppiness 33 (trending), efficiency_ratio_10 0.75 (clean recent down-leg), Fear&Greed 28 fear — a bear-aligned tape with fresh downward energy. 2. LEAN CHECK: short is favored — trend down, net moves negative across 4h/12h/24h, OI accelerating_down; the only counterweight is deep oversold RSI (19-27) and z-score -2.13, hinting at bounce risk, but no reclaim yet. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: down-trend with confirming flow — oi_momentum accelerating_down, oi_change_recent_half -0.21%, net_move_4h -0.74%/12h -1.85%, price sitting at 5d/20d lows (dist_from_low 0.00%), short WR on this regime historically better (bear_trend WR 45.3%, short WR 45.4% vs long 35.6%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 19-27 oversold + z_score -2.1 at the lows means a violent mean-reversion bounce could reclaim broken support and stop a fresh short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 62,301; stop above the recent minor structure/bounce zone at 63,180 (~1.41% risk, beyond the oversold snap-back); TP1 stretch at 61,050 (~2.0% reward, R:R ~1.4) targeting continuation into next demand as price is already at lows and 24h traversal avg is ~1.15% but p90 range 4.1% makes it reachable in a bear leg. 6. EXPECTATION: honest distribution given oversold bounce risk against a real downtrend.
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