AAVEUSD long — 9 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 91.7245 and stopped out at 90.55 after 2.1 hours, closing at -1.28%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-09 21:23 |
| Entry | 91.7245 |
| Stop-loss | 90.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 92.5198 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 93.05 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.13 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 90.55 |
| Realized P&L | -1.28% |
| Time open | 2.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 9.4 (deep chop) with adx_20 8.6, choppiness 64.5 (range-bound), ER-30 0.05 / ER-10 0.22 (near-zero directional cleanliness), Hurst 0.36 (mean-reverting), HMM calm, RV 24h at 9.7th pctile / 7d at 0th pctile (extremely compressed) — a very low-vol, range-bound tape; fast TFs (5m/15m) bull-aligned, 1h mixed, 4h bear-aligned. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly long — near-term flow and short-TF EMAs favor upside, top-traders positioned long, funding elevated but not extreme. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: fast-TF EMA stack bull-aligned (5m+15m), taker ratio 1.20 with a recovering hourly sequence, top_trader_pos_ratio 1.50 and account_ratio 1.41 (top traders net long), price just -0.42% off the 5d high and +4.48% above 5d low — the buyers control the near-term range and prior analysts won repeatedly playing this exact low-vol bull-tilt long. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h EMA bear-aligned and Hurst mean-reverting means a rejection at the 5d high flips this into a fade back toward the range mid — a break below the fast-TF EMAs invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 91.72, stop 90.55 below the recent swing/fast-EMA support (~1.27% risk, ~0.9x the 1.34% 24h traversal — appropriate given compressed vol), take_profit_1 at 93.05 near the 5d high retest (~1.45% reward, R:R ~1.14, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: compressed range-bound tape with a modest bull lean and meaningful expire risk given ADX 9.
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