AAVEUSD long — 12 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 89.2323 and stopped out at 87.85 after 20.8 hours, closing at -1.55%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-12 01:11 |
| Entry | 89.2323 |
| Stop-loss | 87.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 90.4764 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 91.3057 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 87.85 |
| Realized P&L | -1.55% |
| Time open | 20.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 31 but slope -5.8 (fading), 4h/1h EMA bear-aligned but 5m bull / 15m mixed, alignment 0/4, choppiness 44, Hurst 0.40 (mean-revert), HMM calm — a decaying bear trend with a fresh short-term bounce. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly long on the near-term bounce — net +1.12% 4h, taker ratio spiked to 1.86 (latest hour) after a run of sub-1.0 prints, top-trader position ratio 1.60 long-tilted and rising (+0.041 4h), 5m EMA bull-aligned and RSI 78 hot; the HTF is bearish so this is a counter-trend reclaim, kept low-confidence. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow cluster — aggressive taker buying (1.86 last hour, several >1.0 recent), OI z +1.67 building, and top-trader positioning firmly long support a mean-reversion push toward the 5d-high, off the -1.03 rolling-z oversold zone. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the dominant 4h bear stack reasserts and fading ADX just marks a pause — a rejection at recent-high with taker ratio collapsing back below 1.0 kills it. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 89.23; stop below the near swing/oversold reclaim at 87.85 (~1.55% risk, within ~0.5x of the 2.9% avg 7d range and RV); stretch target 91.35 (~2.4% up, R:R ~1.37) toward the 5d-high resistance, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: bounce is real but counter to HTF and RSI overbought on fast TFs, so meaningful expire/fail odds.
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