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AAVEUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (hit target)

This long on AAVEUSD entered at 112.0081 and hit its target at 115.4 after 21 minutes, closing at +3.03%.

AssetAAVEUSD
Directionlong
Issued (UTC)2026-08-21 20:35
Entry112.0081
Stop-loss109.15
Take-profit 1114.0432
Take-profit 2 (stretch)115.4
Reward:risk at entry1.19
Outcomehit its target
Close price115.4
Realized P&L+3.03%
Time open21 minutes

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish, 1h ADX 59.8 very high but slope negative (-3.1, fading), choppiness 46.6 neutral, ER-10 0.02 (near-term path netting nowhere) vs ER-30 0.45, Hurst 0.58 mild persistence, HMM volatile 0.96 — a powerful +14.9% 24h bull impulse now stalling (net +0.26% last 4h). 2. LEAN CHECK: long — the entire HTF trend, top-trader positioning and OI history lean up; no clean short catalyst. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — full bull EMA stack across all TFs, top_trader_pos_ratio 1.51 (rising +0.039 over 4h), agg_oi +17.8% 24h with funding z +1.36, and prior same-regime long calls won repeatedly (+3.2 to +4.0%); price sits at the 5d/20d/90d high (-0.43%), a breakout continuation setup. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deep stretch (4h RSI 88 overbought, z-score +3.30, RV 100th pctile, ADX slope negative, oi_change_recent_half -4.5% accelerating_down) — a mean-reversion flush below the recent breakout base invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 112.01; stop 109.15 below the near-term consolidation shelf (~2.55% ≈ 0.8x the 3.22% avg 24h traversal, honest invalidation); TP 115.40 stretch (~3.03%, R:R ~1.18) at extension above the fresh high, inside 4% clamp. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but stretch + fading ADX cap it — p_tp1 43, p_sl 34, p_expire 23.

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