AAVEUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 109.31 and hit its target at 111.932 after 1.6 hours, closing at +2.40%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 18:50 |
| Entry | 109.31 |
| Stop-loss | 105.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 111.932 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 113.68 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 111.932 |
| Realized P&L | +2.40% |
| Time open | 1.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m mixed, 15m/1h/4h bull-aligned), 1h ADX 61.6 very high but slope negative (-0.66, fading), choppiness 44.8 (neutral), ER-10 0.035 (path netting nowhere near-term), Hurst 0.57 mild persistence, HMM volatile 0.96 — a powerful but decelerating bull impulse (+12.7% 24h) that has stalled in the last 4h (net -2.58%). 2. LEAN CHECK: long — the higher-TF trend, OI acceleration (accelerating_up, oi_15m_z +0.91, agg_oi +17%) and top-trader positioning (pos ratio 1.48) all lean up; the counter-case is pure exhaustion (4h RSI 83, z-score +3.04, RV 100th pctile) which is a location risk, not a reversal signal. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — accelerating_up OI with agg_oi +17% and top-trader long tilt 1.48 into a still-bull-stacked 15m/1h/4h EMA structure; funding elevated (z +1.30/+1.36) but not extreme. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the fresh 4h pullback (-2.58%, ER-10 0.035, 5m RSI oversold 29.9) is the first crack — losing the 5d/20d high proximity zone and breaking below ~106.5 would confirm exhaustion topping. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 109.31; stop below the recent pullback swing at 105.85 (3.16% risk, ~1x the 24h avg traversal of 3.1% and inside p90 range 8.7%); take_profit 113.70 stretch (4.02%→clamp to 4%, R:R ~1.25) targeting a retest of the impulse high extension. 6. EXPECTATION: stretched location + stalled momentum caps upside odds; p_tp1 41, p_sl 37, p_expire 22.
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