AAVEUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 122.03 and hit its target at 124.9587 after 2.9 hours, closing at +2.40%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 22:05 |
| Entry | 122.03 |
| Stop-loss | 117.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 124.9587 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 126.9112 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.09 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 124.9587 |
| Realized P&L | +2.40% |
| Time open | 2.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish, 1h ADX 62.3 very high with positive slope (+1.89, strengthening), choppiness 38.3 (edge of strongly-trending), ER-10 0.58 / ER-30 0.56 moderately clean, Hurst 0.52 neutral, HMM volatile 0.96 — a violent +25% 24h bull impulse still in force but deeply extended. 2. LEAN CHECK: long — the entire HTF trend, top-trader positioning, and OI expansion all point up; the counter-case is pure exhaustion, not a reversal signal. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend + flow — 4/4 bull EMA stack, ADX rising, top_trader_pos_ratio 1.56 (delta +0.04, 4h +0.08 building), agg_oi +31.8% and oi_15m_z +2.82 confirming fresh money chasing the move; net +11% last 4h shows momentum still live. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the stretch is severe — price at 5d/20d/90d highs, z-score +4.30, RV 100th pctile, 4h RSI 92 — any failure to hold the recent high (~122) triggers a fast mean-revert flush that stops the long. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 122.03; stop 117.55 below the last intraday consolidation shelf (~3.7% risk, inside the 7.4% 7d ADR / RV band); TP1 stretch 127.30 at a modest new-high extension, ~4.3% but clamped to 4% / and R:R ~1.18 vs stop — honest reachable given avg_move_24h 3.47% but momentum-boosted. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend favors continuation but stretch raises reversal/expire odds — p_tp1 46, p_sl 33, p_expire 21.
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