ETHUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,529.7 and stopped out at 2,478 after 7.1 hours, closing at -2.04%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 22:05 |
| Entry | 2,529.7 |
| Stop-loss | 2,478 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,569.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,596 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.28 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,478 |
| Realized P&L | -2.04% |
| Time open | 7.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h 57.7 slope +1.68 (towering trend, still strengthening), ER-10 0.86 clean/ER-30 0.40, choppiness 40 (trending edge), Hurst 0.62 trending, HMM calm high-conf — a powerful +9.5% 24h bull impulse at extreme extension. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — trend fully aligned, OI accelerating_up, top-traders long-tilted, freshest taker 1.48 buy-heavy. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend+flow confluence — full_bullish MTF with rising ADX PLUS agg OI +13.3%, oi_5m_z +2.77 accelerating_up, top_trader_pos_ratio 1.75, taker 1h 1.48 — real leveraged demand pressing an aligned trend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: extension is dangerous — rolling z +2.79, RV_24h 98.8th pctile, RSI 77-96 across all TFs, funding_z ~2.0 crowded_long, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs; a sharp mean-revert flush invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2529.68; stop below the last 4h higher-low / breakout shelf at 2478 (~2.05% ≈ within 24h avg traversal 3.3% and ATR); stretch TP at 2596 (~2.6% up, ~1.28x stop distance, inside clamps) — a reachable continuation extension. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned edge but extreme extension caps the stretch odds; recent same-regime longs ~60% wr with ~2.5% moves both directions.
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