AAVEUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 109.705 and stopped out at 106.35 after 21 minutes, closing at -3.06%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 08:41 |
| Entry | 109.705 |
| Stop-loss | 106.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 112.012 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 113.55 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.15 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 106.35 |
| Realized P&L | -3.06% |
| Time open | 21 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 with 5m/15m/1h bull EMA-stacked (4h mixed), 1h ADX 52.5 rising (slope +2.99), choppiness 18.4 (strongly trending), ER-10 0.85 very clean, Hurst 0.48 neutral, HMM calm — a powerful bull impulse (+11.4% 24h) but deeply stretched. 2. LEAN CHECK: long — trend, OI, and top-trader positioning all point up; the counter-case is pure exhaustion (RSI 86-92 across every TF, rolling z +4.72, sitting exactly at 5d/20d/90d high, RV 24h at 100th pctile). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — oi_momentum accelerating_up, oi_5m_z +4.55, agg OI +24.9% 24h, taker 1.45, top-trader pos ratio 1.34 rising — fresh money chasing a clean trend; this asset's track record shows repeated long wins in exactly this stretched-but-trending setup. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 92 on 5m / 89 on 15m with rolling z +4.72 is a textbook blow-off; any loss of the 5m EMA stack with OI decelerating flips this to a fast mean-revert flush. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 109.705; stop 106.35 just below the fast-EMA reclaim zone (~3.05% ~ 0.6x the atr-heavy daily range, tight given extreme RV); stretch TP 113.55 (~3.5% up, R:R ~1.15), a reachable extension given the momentum but inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but extreme overbought caps follow-through and raises whipsaw odds.
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