ETHUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,412 and stopped out at 2,358 after 2.9 hours, closing at -2.24%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 08:41 |
| Entry | 2,412 |
| Stop-loss | 2,358 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,451.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,478 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,358 |
| Realized P&L | -2.24% |
| Time open | 2.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h 62.4 slope +1.32 (extremely strong trend, still strengthening), choppiness 43, ER-10 0.73 clean / ER-30 0.46, Hurst 0.66 trending, HMM calm high-conf — a powerful +6.0% 24h bull impulse, trend still building. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — trend fully aligned, OI accelerating_up (agg +8.6%, oi_5m_z +2.56), ETF eth +$219.5M inflow, top-trader pos ratio 1.58 long-tilted. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is the trend+flow combo — full bullish EMA stack across all 4 TFs with ADX 62 rising, plus OI accelerating_up and fresh ETF inflows, all trend-aligned and pointing higher. 4. PRE-MORTEM: extension risk — RSI 79/95 on 1h/4h, rolling z +2.86, price at 5d/20d/90d highs, RV_24h 84.7th pctile, funding z +1.9/+2.0 crowded — a sharp mean-reversion flush would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2411.99; stop below the recent breakout shelf at 2358 (~2.24% risk, ~0.75x the ~3% typical 24h traversal); stretch TP at 2478 (~2.74% reward, R:R ~1.22) — an honest next resistance the strong trend can reach in 24h. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend favors continuation but extension caps upside; p_tp1 47, p_sl 33, p_expire 20.
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