AAVEUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 112.5728 and stopped out at 109.15 after 3.6 hours, closing at -3.04%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 15:11 |
| Entry | 112.5728 |
| Stop-loss | 109.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 114.9891 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 116.6 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 109.15 |
| Realized P&L | -3.04% |
| Time open | 3.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish, 1h ADX 62.3 rising (slope +2.79), choppiness 37 (trending), ER-10 0.59 / ER-30 0.53 moderately clean, Hurst 0.54 neutral, HMM calm — a powerful accelerating bull impulse (+15.9% 24h) but deeply stretched (1h RSI 77.5, 4h RSI 90, z-score +3.94, RV 99th pctile). 2. LEAN CHECK: long — trend, OI acceleration and top-trader positioning all point up; counter-case is pure exhaustion, not a reclaim, so I stay with the trend at moderate confidence. 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — oi_momentum accelerating_up, oi_15m_z +1.72, oi_5m_z +1.84, agg_oi +23.4%, top_trader_pos_ratio 1.45 rising (+0.106 over 4h) — fresh money leaning long into a 4/4-aligned trend at 5d/20d/90d highs. This exact setup has won repeatedly on AAVE this session. 4. PRE-MORTEM: extreme stretch (4h RSI 90, z +3.94) means a mean-revert flush is the real risk; also the latest 1h taker ratio slipped to 0.94 (mild sell tilt) — a failure to hold above ~110 would signal blow-off exhaustion. 5. LEVELS: entry 112.57; stop 109.15 below the recent breakout shelf (~3.0% ≈ 0.5x the 6.1% 7d range given elevated RV, structural invalidation); TP1 stretch 116.60 (+3.58%, R:R ~1.18, inside 4% clamp) at extension of the impulse. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but stretch caps upside; p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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