PAXGUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,614.6 and stopped out at 4,571 after 12.1 hours, closing at -0.95%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 17:05 |
| Entry | 4,614.6 |
| Stop-loss | 4,571 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,642.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,661.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.07 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,571 |
| Realized P&L | -0.95% |
| Time open | 12.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bullish 4/4 MTF alignment, all EMA stacks bull_aligned, 1h ADX 42.6 rising (+1.78 slope), 4h ADX 40.6, choppiness 38.5 (borderline trending), ER-10/30 ~0.56 moderately clean, Hurst 0.57 persistent, HMM calm full-confidence — a genuine, strengthening macro gold uptrend at fresh 5d/20d/90d highs. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly leans long — macro gold +1.27% 1d / +4.18% 5d, spot ref +2.48%, DXY soft (-1.2% 5d), top-trader pos ratio 2.82 heavily long, taker 1.27 buy-tilted. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend cluster is dominant — 4/4 MTF bull with rising strong ADX plus a confirming macro tailwind (gold spot +2.48%, DXY weak, us10y falling) — trend-aligned long, and this asset's 30d WR is 72.5%. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought everywhere (76/79 on 1h/4h), rolling z +3.20 and 7d RV at 98th pctile flag stretch, OI accelerating_down (-4%) — a sharp exhaustion pullback from the highs would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4614.62; stop below recent intraday structure at 4571 (~0.95% ≈ 0.5x 7d avg range, beyond the last consolidation base); stretch TP at 4661.5 (~1.02%, R:R ~1.1) — a reachable extension of the fresh-high breakout within 24h given 0.95% avg 24h traversal and strong current momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but stretched/overbought caps upside odds; p_tp1 48, p_sl 30, p_expire 22.
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