AAVEUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 109.4916 and hit its target at 111.7766 after 2.6 hours, closing at +2.09%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 11:56 |
| Entry | 109.4916 |
| Stop-loss | 106.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 111.7766 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 113.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 111.7766 |
| Realized P&L | +2.09% |
| Time open | 2.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 with 5m/15m/1h bull EMA-stacked (4h mixed), 1h ADX 58.1 rising (slope +5.67), choppiness 29.1 (strongly trending), ER-10 0.52 / ER-30 0.47 moderately clean, Hurst 0.47 neutral, HMM calm — a powerful accelerating bull impulse (+11.3% 24h) but deeply stretched. 2. LEAN CHECK: long — trend, OI acceleration (accelerating_up, oi_15m_z +1.89, agg_oi +21.5%) and top-trader positioning (pos ratio 1.35, acct 1.73) all point up; the counter is pure exhaustion. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — three confirming clusters (HTF trend, OI acceleration, top-trader long tilt) with a strong ADX-58 impulse; this exact setup won repeatedly on this asset but also lost twice near the top, so respect stretch. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 73 (1h) / 88 (4h) overbought, z-score +3.99 vs 20d mean, RV at 100th pctile, taker ratio just dipped below 1 (0.96) and funding_momentum negative (-0.06) — a momentum roll-over into a mean-revert flush invalidates this. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 109.49; stop 106.35 below the recent breakout shelf (~2.87% risk, ~0.9x the 3.24% typical 24h vol read but appropriate given elevated ATR); target 113.30 stretch (~3.48% / ~1.21x risk), a reachable structural push toward the 5d/20d high just above. 6. EXPECTATION: given overbought stretch and 2-of-5 recent similar longs failing near tops, temper — p_tp1 44, p_sl 39, p_expire 17.
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