BTCUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 76,848.2 and hit its target at 77,959.3 after 9.7 hours, closing at +1.45%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 11:41 |
| Entry | 76,848.2 |
| Stop-loss | 75,180 |
| Take-profit 1 | 77,959.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 78,700 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 77,959.3 |
| Realized P&L | +1.45% |
| Time open | 9.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish, all TFs EMA bull_aligned, ADX_1h 72.7 with +1.27 slope (extreme trend still strengthening), choppiness 31.5 (trending), ER_30 0.48, Hurst 0.56 persistence, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a powerful intact bull trend, price +6.3% on the day pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — HTF trend, OI accelerating up, ETF inflows all align bullish. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: dominant HTF trend cluster — full bull EMA stack + ADX 72.7 rising, reinforced by oi_momentum accelerating_up (oi_15m_z +1.65, +8.9% OI 24h), top_trader_pos_ratio 1.93 (long), $606M BTC ETF inflow, DXY soft — all trend-aligned. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h RSI 94 overbought + rolling_z +3.1 + RV at 100th pctile flag exhaustion risk; a sharp mean-reversion pullback would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 76,848; stop below the recent higher-low structure at 75,180 (~2.17% risk, within the 4.4% 7d range / RV); stretch target 78,700 at prior intraday resistance/round extension (~2.41% / R:R ~1.11, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend favors continuation but overbought/high-RV caps upside odds.
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