AAVEUSD long — 22 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 125.87 and stopped out at 121.24 after 7.6 hours, closing at -3.68%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-22 21:42 |
| Entry | 125.87 |
| Stop-loss | 121.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 128.708 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 130.6 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.06 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 121.24 |
| Realized P&L | -3.68% |
| Time open | 7.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish, 1h ADX 29.5 but slope negative (-2.35, fading), 4h ADX 52 with 4h RSI 79.6 (overbought), choppiness 56.5 (mid), ER-10 0.095 (path netting nowhere last 10 bars — momentum stalled), ER-30 0.30, Hurst 0.55 mild persistence, HMM volatile 1.0 — a +5.7% 24h bull impulse now stalling right at the 5d/20d/90d high (only -1.42% below), z-score +2.49 stretched, RV 85th pctile. 2. LEAN CHECK: long — the entire HTF stack is bull-aligned, OI accelerating_up (oi_15m_z +1.85, oi_momentum accelerating_up), and top-trader positioning long-tilted (pos ratio 1.42, account ratio 1.65); no coherent short case beyond overextension. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — bull EMA stack across all four TFs plus accelerating OI into rising price and top-trader long-lean is the strongest cluster; this asset's track record here is a 61% WR long-only regime. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits at the 90d high with 4h RSI 79.6 and ER-10 0.095 (stalled) — a rejection off the high and loss of the reclaimed level would flip momentum down, exactly the setup that produced the recent -3.89% and -3.77% losses. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 125.87; stop below the recent consolidation shelf at 121.40 (~3.55% risk, within the ~5.2% 24h traversal and ~5.5% 30d ADR), beyond the invalidation; take_profit 130.60 as the stretch (~3.76% reward, R:R ~1.06, inside the 1.5x/4% clamps) — a clean push through the 90d high. 6. EXPECTATION: stretched at highs with stalled ER tempers the upside; p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.
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