AAVEUSD long — 22 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 128.69 and stopped out at 124.1 after 1.8 hours, closing at -3.57%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-22 03:20 |
| Entry | 128.69 |
| Stop-loss | 124.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 131.7786 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 133.8376 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.12 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 124.1 |
| Realized P&L | -3.57% |
| Time open | 1.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish, 1h ADX 66.9 very high with positive slope (+2.82, strengthening), choppiness 28.9 (strongly-trending), ER-10 0.67 / ER-30 0.61 (clean one-way path), Hurst 0.56 mild persistence, HMM volatile 0.998 — a violent +27.6% 24h bull impulse still accelerating (net +4.77% last 4h). 2. LEAN CHECK: long — HTF trend, OI acceleration and top-trader positioning all point up; only counter is exhaustion. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + flow confluence — OI accelerating_up (oi_15m_z +1.89, agg_oi +33.8%, oi_momentum accelerating_up) alongside top-trader pos ratio 1.61 (rising +0.037 fast, +0.037 slow) confirms fresh money leaning long into the trend, and price is pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs (breakout structure). 4. PRE-MORTEM: the trade is deeply stretched (4h RSI 93.6, 1h RSI 82, z-score +4.20, RV 100th pctile) — any momentum roll-over invites a sharp mean-reversion snap given the parabolic extension; taker ratio 0.895 (sub-1) is the one soft crack. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry at mark 128.69; stop below the recent impulse-leg swing at 124.10 (~3.6% risk, within the ~8% 7d range / high RV); stretch TP at 134.60 (~4.59 reward vs 4.59 risk ≈ 1.0x R:R but clamped to 4% at ~133.84) — clamp to 4% ceiling so target = 133.84, an honest structural continuation level reachable given 4.1% avg 24h traversal. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but parabolic extension raises reversal odds and expiry risk.
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