AAVEUSD long — 1 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 128.66 and stopped out at 125.1 after 1.3 hours, closing at -2.77%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-01 11:48 |
| Entry | 128.66 |
| Stop-loss | 125.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 131.024 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 132.6 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 125.1 |
| Realized P&L | -2.77% |
| Time open | 1.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/15m/5m EMA bull_aligned, 1h mixed → alignment tag mixed/transitional, 1h ADX 23.8 rising (+1.89 slope), choppiness 56.8 mid-range, ER-30 0.23 (weak follow-through), Hurst 0.34 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.9995 — a bull-stacked HTF drifting up with rising ADX, low-conviction but leaning up. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG — +4.28% 24h, net_move +1.02% 4h / +3.59% 12h, price sits just -0.54% under 5d high, fear/greed 69 Greed. 3. THESIS: HTF EMA stack bullish (3 of 4 TFs), top-trader position ratio 1.95 and account ratio 1.59 (top traders net long), OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +0.67, momentum accelerating_up), agg OI +0.66% 24h with taker ratio 1.02 — flow/positioning cluster confirms the trend-aligned up-drift into the 5d high. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is right at the 5d high (-0.54%) with Hurst 0.34 mean-reverting and top-trader ratio ticking down (4h chg -0.057) — a rejection at that resistance and a roll-back below ~126 kills the long. 5. LEVELS: entry 128.66, stop 125.10 (below the recent 12h base / prior consolidation, ~2.77% ≈ 0.9x the 3.14% 24h ATR span — structural invalidation), target 132.60 (fresh push through 5d high, ~3.06% ≈ 1.1x stop distance, R:R ~1.11, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: 2 confirming clusters (HTF trend, flow/positioning), 1 soft contra (mean-reversion at resistance) → conf ~60; base rate on this asset wr 59%.
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