PAXGUSD short — 1 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,350.6 and stopped out at 4,382.4 after 1.3 hours, closing at -0.73%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-01 13:03 |
| Entry | 4,350.6 |
| Stop-loss | 4,382.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,331.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,318.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.01 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,382.4 |
| Realized P&L | -0.73% |
| Time open | 1.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMAs all bear_aligned (4h mixed), regime bear_trend, ADX 29 1h with slope +4.49 (strengthening), 15m ADX 42.8 and 4h ADX 50, choppiness 32.9 (strongly trending), ER-10 0.62 (clean), Hurst 0.42 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a macro gold pullback in an intact, strengthening intraday downtrend. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — macro gold spot -1.99% 1d, net_move -0.48% 4h / -2.10% 12h / -1.53% 24h, price at 5d/20d/90d lows (dist_from_low 0.000), rolling z -2.24. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — three lower TFs bear-stacked with strengthening ADX and a clean ER-10, taker ratio 0.899 (sell-side) and gold spot falling; PAXG track record is 67.5% wr favoring the short-heavy analyst reads. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI oversold across all TFs (22-25) and z-score -2.24 with top-trader pos ratio 2.67 (heavily long) — an oversold snapback/reclaim above the recent breakdown would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4350.62; stop above the intraday reclaim ~4382 (0.72%, within ~0.5-1.0x the ~0.78% typical 24h traversal but sized to atr), target 4318 (0.75% down, RR ~1.0) at continuation toward the extended low. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but deeply oversold caps follow-through; p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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