AAVEUSD long — 4 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 135.35 and stopped out at 132.55 after 3.4 hours, closing at -2.07%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-04 09:03 |
| Entry | 135.35 |
| Stop-loss | 132.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 137.45 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 138.85 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 132.55 |
| Realized P&L | -2.07% |
| Time open | 3.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bullish MTF (4/4 EMA bull-stacked 5m/15m/1h/4h), 1h ADX 25.2 rising (+0.59 slope), 4h ADX 38 strong, choppiness 57 mid-range, ER-10 0.38/ER-30 0.32 and Hurst 0.37 (longer path mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a genuine bull trend on a bull-stacked HTF with AAVE's usual net-nowhere longer-window caveat. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear LONG — +4.36% 24h, net_move +1.12% 4h, taker ratio 1.51 latest and last two buckets 1.38/1.51, top-trader position ratio 2.21 strongly long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend alignment (4/4 EMA stack + 4h ADX 38) plus flow (taker 1.51, agg_oi +0.85% 24h, top-trader pos 2.21) — trend-aligned and confirmed by cross-asset (SOL/ETH/BTC all positively correlated, total3 +4.6% 5d). 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits at -0.38% from 5d/20d/90d high and z-score +2.68 stretched — a rejection at the high with OI unwinding (oi_change_recent_half -2.0%, momentum accelerating_down) flips this fast. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 135.35, stop below the recent consolidation/impulse origin at 132.55 (~2.07% risk, ~0.85x rv_24h realized range, beyond invalidation of the bull structure); TP stretch 138.85 (~2.59% ≈ 1.25x risk) at a fresh breakout above the 5d/20d/90d high cluster, reachable given avg 24h traversal 2.65%. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but stretched at extrema with OI decelerating — modest edge, meaningful expire risk.
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