ETHUSD long — 4 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,522.5 and stopped out at 2,478.9 after 3.7 hours, closing at -1.73%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-04 08:48 |
| Entry | 2,522.5 |
| Stop-loss | 2,478.9 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,551.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,571.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.12 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,478.9 |
| Realized P&L | -1.73% |
| Time open | 3.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF bull-tilted (5m/15m/4h bull EMA, 1h mixed), 1h ADX 42.8 slope +1.6 (strong, strengthening), ADX-20 32.5, ER-10 0.49/ER-30 0.39, choppiness 63.5 (nominally choppy but ADX says trend), Hurst 0.47, HMM calm 0.999 — a HTF-bull structure riding a fresh +4.95% 24h impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — net moves all positive (+0.61% 4h, +0.78% 12h, +5.04% 24h), OI up +5.1% 24h, top-trader position ratio 1.75 heavily long, ETF eth inflow +$141M. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — HTF EMAs bull, ADX 42.8 strengthening, OI building (+5.1%, oi_z +1.47) into a fresh upside impulse just under the 5d/20d/90d high (-0.18% to -0.40%), top traders leaning long — this is a trend push toward a breakout of recent highs. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RV in 84th pctile + RSI 68-70 overbought + taker 1h 0.878 (net sellers this hour) + z-score +1.72 + funding_momentum negative (unwinding) — an exhaustion rejection at the highs would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 2522.53; stop below the recent higher-low / impulse base at 2478.9 (~1.73% risk, ~1x rv/atr band); stretch TP at 2571.5 (~1.94% reward, R:R ~1.12) targeting a clean break above the 5d/20d high cluster, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but stretched into highs with a soft taker print — moderate edge.
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