AAVEUSD long — 6 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 134.43 and hit its target at 137.052 after 1.2 hours, closing at +1.95%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-06 04:31 |
| Entry | 134.43 |
| Stop-loss | 131.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 137.052 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 138.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.29 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 137.052 |
| Realized P&L | +1.95% |
| Time open | 1.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h/15m EMA bull-stacked with 4h ADX 36 / 1h ADX 30.8 (strong trend) but adx_1h_slope -0.86 (fading) and mtf 2/4 (5m mixed, RSI 32); ER-10 0.03 / ER-30 0.17 / Hurst 0.39 flag the classic AAVE net-nowhere chop path, HMM calm 0.999 — bull-stacked HTF with a sharp 4h pullback (net_move_4h -3.03%). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG — HTF EMA stack, OI accelerating_up (+7.5% agg, oi_momentum accelerating_up), top-trader pos ratio 2.35 heavily long, taker 1.28 buy-tilted, +3.24% 24h; the 4h dip into an oversold 5m RSI 31 is a dip-buy in an uptrend, not a reversal. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow/positioning cluster is strongest — OI building on rising price + top traders 2.35x long + funding z ~0.9 positive but not extreme, trend-aligned with bull-stacked 1h/4h; AAVE's recent same-regime record is 3-2 long wins. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the -3% 4h leg continuing below the 5d/session support (z-score already +1.66 stretched, RV 24h at 94th pctile) would flip this into a failed dip-buy. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 134.43; stop below the recent pullback swing at 131.05 (≈2.5% ≈ ~1x the atr/daily range); stretch TP at 138.80 (≈3.25%, RR ≈1.3, inside the 4% clamp) toward the 5d high area. 6. EXPECTATION: p_tp1 46, p_sl 38, p_expire 16 given stretched z-score and fading 1h ADX offsetting the trend/flow edge.
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