AAVEUSD long — 9 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 129.0898 and stopped out at 127.55 after 3.3 hours, closing at -1.19%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-09 16:18 |
| Entry | 129.0898 |
| Stop-loss | 127.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 130.2239 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 130.98 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 127.55 |
| Realized P&L | -1.19% |
| Time open | 3.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull-aligned (ADX 21.5) but 1h/15m/5m all bear-aligned, mtf 2/4 transitional; ER-10 0.11 / ER-30 0.08 / Hurst 0.38 / choppiness 64 → AAVE's classic net-nowhere mean-reverting chop, HMM calm 0.999 — soft downdrift within a broadly bull HTF. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG — top-traders sit heavily long (pos_ratio 2.20, account 1.17) and 4h EMA is still bull-stacked, near-term pullback (net_4h -0.27%, 24h -1.07%) is shallow and price sits +0.86% off 5d low with RV in 11th pctile (compressed). 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is positioning — top-trader position ratio 2.20 plus the 30d track record of long-in-chop reclaims (recent same-regime wins +2.43/+3.31/+3.18%) and the 4h bull EMA stack; funding neutral/negative (agg_z -0.57) leaves no crowded-long risk. 4. PRE-MORTEM: oi_momentum accelerating_down (-1.04% recent half) with 1h ADX fading (slope -0.74) — if the shallow pullback extends and takes out the 5d low (~$127.9), the long is wrong. 5. LEVELS: stop below 5d low structure at 127.55 (~1.19% risk, inside 1x RV band); stretch target 130.98 at prior intraday resistance (~1.46% = ~1.2x risk, R:R ~1.2, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: modest edge with compressed vol favoring a bounce but weak momentum caps conviction.
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