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AAVEUSD long — 13 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 124.7877 and hit its target at 127.1231 after 11.8 hours, closing at +1.87%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-13 22:11 |
| Entry | 124.7877 |
| Stop-loss | 120.94 |
| Take-profit 1 | 127.1231 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 128.68 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.01 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 127.1231 |
| Realized P&L | +1.87% |
| Time open | 11.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf 0/4 mixed — 5m mixed, 15m bull-aligned, 1h/4h mixed; 1h ADX 15.99 fading (-1.10 slope), ADX-20 13.6, ER-10 0.11 / ER-30 0.07 / choppiness 51.7 / Hurst 0.36 all flag AAVE's classic net-nowhere mean-reverting chop, HMM calm 0.9996. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG — fresh net_move_4h -1.60% pulled price to rolling z -0.95, 5m RSI 16.3 deeply oversold, price sits +3.37% off the 5d/20d/90d low, and this asset's mean-reversion-from-oversold long setup has a strong recent-win track record. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the reversion cluster — oversold intraday washout (z -0.95, 5m RSI 16, 4h net -0.48%) combined with top-trader positioning firmly long (pos ratio 2.10, account ratio 1.42) and OI accelerating_up (15m z +1.07, oi_change_recent_half +2.65%) means dip-buyers are still leaning in as price mean-reverts off the low. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a decisive break of the 5d low (~120.4) with expanding OI would invalidate the reversion and confirm a fresh down-leg. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss 120.94 sits just below the 5d-low band (invalidation); stop distance ~3.08%, within AAVE's ~4.7% 7d range; take_profit_1 128.40 is a ~2.9% stretch back toward the mid-range / 5d-high approach, R:R ~0.94... adjusting TP to 128.62 gives R:R ~1.0 vs the 3.85-wide stop. 6. EXPECTATION: chop-reversion base rate on this asset favors modest edge but wide-stop expiry risk is real.
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