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AAVEUSD long — 13 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 124.7683 and hit its target at 126.7373 after 3.9 hours, closing at +1.58%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-13 09:56 |
| Entry | 124.7683 |
| Stop-loss | 121.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 126.7373 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 128.05 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.02 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 126.7373 |
| Realized P&L | +1.58% |
| Time open | 3.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf 2/4 mixed — 5m bear-aligned, 15m/1h/4h mixed; 1h ADX 19.8 fading (-0.28 slope), ER-10 0.15 / ER-30 0.08 / choppiness 42 / Hurst 0.37 all flag AAVE's classic net-nowhere mean-reverting chop, HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG — net_move_4h -2.16% pulled price to z-score -1.05, RV in bottom decile (8.7 pctile), and price sits +3.3% off the 5d/20d/90d low — a stretched-down snap-back setup that has repeatedly won on this asset. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: mean-reversion is the dominant edge here — Hurst 0.37 (strongly mean-reverting), z-score -1.05, and top-trader pos ratio 2.16 (heavily long) plus recent same-regime chop longs 3-of-5 winners support a bounce off the local low, even though flow (OI accelerating_down, oi_15m_z -1.73) leans bearish short-term. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a clean break below the 5d low (~120.9) with OI continuing to accelerate down would confirm a genuine bear leg and invalidate the fade. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss 121.35 just under the recent swing/5d-low zone (~2.75% risk, within the 4.75% 7d range); take_profit_1 128.05 at the prior consolidation shelf (~2.63% reward, R:R ~0.96 — tuck stop slightly to keep R:R>=1, so set stop 121.55). 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reversion edge is real but flow is against it, so p_tp1 44 / p_sl 38 / p_expire 18.
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