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AAVEUSD long — 22 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 144.7407 and stopped out at 141.15 after 1.4 hours, closing at -2.48%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-22 13:08 |
| Entry | 144.7407 |
| Stop-loss | 141.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 147.2363 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 148.9 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 141.15 |
| Realized P&L | -2.48% |
| Time open | 1.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull-aligned (ADX 37.3, RSI 62) and 1h bull-aligned but 1h ADX only 16.5 and fading (-0.77 slope), 15m/5m mixed (alignment 2/4, mtf mixed), ER-10 0.12 / ER-30 0.15, choppiness 53, Hurst 0.59, HMM calm 0.999 — a mature 4h bull structure now consolidating just below the 5d/20d/90d high. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG — HTF trend bullish and top-traders heavily long, price only -2.06% from the multi-timeframe high with a fresh +1.88% 4h up-move; the down 24h is a shallow pullback within trend. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend + positioning — 4h bull stack with strong ADX, top_trader_pos_ratio 2.25 (accounts 1.74), taker_buy_sell 1.22 and net_move_4h +1.88% turning back up near the high; this is a trend-aligned dip-buy. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI is bleeding (oi_change_24h -3.1%, agg_oi -1.5%, momentum decelerating) and funding is elevated (z +1.12) — a rejection at the 5d high with waning OI would confirm exhaustion, invalidating the long. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 144.74; stop below recent consolidation floor at 141.15 (~2.48% risk, within the ~7.5% avg daily range); stretch target 148.90 (~2.87% up, R:R ~1.16) into the 5d high band at ~147.8-149. 6. EXPECTATION: RV elevated (79th pctile) so moves are large; base-rate long win here ~55-58%, but decelerating OI and overbought lower TFs temper it.
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