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AAVEUSD long — 23 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 154.14 and stopped out at 149.3 after 1.2 hours, closing at -3.14%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-23 03:53 |
| Entry | 154.14 |
| Stop-loss | 149.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 157.026 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 158.95 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.00 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 149.3 |
| Realized P&L | -3.14% |
| Time open | 1.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bullish MTF (4/4 alignment), 1h ADX 21.7 rising (+4.79 slope), 4h ADX 39, ER-10 0.87 (clean one-way), choppiness 33.9 (trending), Hurst 0.585, HMM calm — a genuine, freshly-accelerating bull trend printing new 5d/20d/90d highs. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear LONG — trend, flow and positioning all point up. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend + OI-flow confluence — price at fresh highs (+0.00% from all extrema), net_move +4.3%/4h and +7.3%/12h, OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +5.2, agg_oi +7.5%), top-trader pos ratio 2.17 long-heavy — real money adding into the breakout. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI extreme across all TFs (5m 84.7, 4h 73.8) + z-score +2.2 + taker ratio 0.774 (fading last hour) signal exhaustion; a rejection back below the breakout would flush late longs. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 154.14; stop below the fast-move base at 149.35 (~3.1% risk, ~0.5x the 98% rv_24h and near 1h atr structure); stretch TP at 158.60 (~2.9% / R:R ~0.93... adjust) — set TP 158.90 for R:R ~1.0 at a round extension of the impulse, within 4% clamp. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but overbought/faded taker tempers; p_tp1 46, p_sl 33, p_expire 21.
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