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AAVEUSD long — 25 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 153.8 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 155.86 with a price move of +1.34%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-25 16:38 |
| Entry | 153.8 |
| Stop-loss | 148.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 157.4912 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 159.952 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.13 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 155.86 |
| Realized P&L | +1.34% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bull_trend — full_bullish MTF 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all bull-aligned), 1h ADX 29.6 rising (slope +0.80), choppiness 42 (leaning trend), ER-10 0.88 (clean recent one-way), Hurst 0.56, HMM calm 1.0 — a genuine intact uptrend. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear LONG — HTF trend, flow, and positioning all point up with no coherent short case. 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF trend + flow/positioning confluence — 4/4 bull MTF, top-trader pos ratio 2.44 (rising +0.118 over 4h), agg OI +8.88% and OI z +2.05 confirming fresh long build, funding z +1.17 rising; price +5.99% 24h holding right at 5d/20d/90d high. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 74.8 overbought + z-score +1.77 + OI decelerating means an exhaustion pullback could flush this back through the recent breakout base. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 153.80; stop 148.35 (below the near-term breakout base / prior consolidation, ~3.5% risk, within the ~5-8% daily range); stretch TP 160.65 (~4.45% / ~1.26x stop distance clamped by structure toward the extension high). 6. EXPECTATION: overbought at highs tempers p_tp1 but trend confluence favors continuation.
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