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AAVEUSD long — 26 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 155.63 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 154.34 with a price move of -0.83%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-26 16:38 |
| Entry | 155.63 |
| Stop-loss | 151.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 158.222 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 159.95 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.02 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 154.34 |
| Realized P&L | -0.83% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bull_trend — full_bullish MTF 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all bull-aligned), 1h ADX 28.5 (though slope -1.6, fading slightly), choppiness 62.4 (leaning chop), ER-10 0.28 / ER-30 0.34 (noisy path), Hurst 0.55, HMM calm 1.0 — intact uptrend but momentum decelerating and price at 5d/20d/90d highs. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear LONG — HTF trend, OI acceleration, and top-trader positioning all point up; no coherent short case beyond overbought stretch. 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is flow+positioning — OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +1.94, oi_15m_z +1.72, agg_oi +1.94%), top_trader_pos_ratio 2.24 heavily long and still rising (4h_chg +0.023), riding a full-bullish stack at fresh 5d highs. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits at 5d/20d/90d highs with z_score +1.99 and 1h taker ratio 0.79 (sellers), ADX slope negative and RSI 4h 67 — a rejection off the high with OI unwind invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent consolidation floor at 151.4 (invalidation of the breakout leg), ~2.7% risk fitting the 7.7% 7d range; stretch target 159.9 (~2.75% up, R:R ~1.02), a reachable extension within 24h given avg_move_24h 4.7%. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought at highs with fading ADX tempers upside odds but trend/flow remain up.
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