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AAVEUSD long — 2 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 182.6003 and stopped out at 177.4 after 23.1 hours, closing at -2.85%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-02 05:20 |
| Entry | 182.6003 |
| Stop-loss | 177.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 186.5001 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 189.1 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 177.4 |
| Realized P&L | -2.85% |
| Time open | 23.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bull trend — MTF 4/4 full_bullish, 1h ADX 41.9 rising (slope +6.74), 4h ADX 37.6, choppiness 34.9 (trending edge), ER-10 0.54, Hurst 0.53, HMM calm 0.9999; net +9.2% 24h / +3.69% 4h at fresh 5d/20d/90d highs, mark z +2.90. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly LONG — trend, OI acceleration and top-trader positioning all point up; only caution is stretched RSI/vol. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is OI+flow confluence — agg OI +16.9%/24h and Binance OI z +2.08 with oi_momentum accelerating_up, top_trader_pos_ratio 1.77 (longs leaning in), taker 1.06; all stacked on a trend-aligned bull leg that has repeatedly paid (asset wr 64.5%, recent same-regime longs 3 wins). 4. PRE-MORTEM: RV at 100th pctile (159%) + 4h RSI 75 overbought — a mean-reversion flush off a vertical move is the main risk, invalidated by a loss of the recent breakout shelf near 178. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss 177.4 below the breakout shelf (~2.85% / ~0.6x the 5.05% 24h traversal); take_profit_1 189.1 as the stretch (R:R ~1.3), just above round 188 and reachable within 24h given avg 24h move 5%. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but stretched/overbought caps follow-through — p_tp1 51, p_sl 33, p_expire 16.
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