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AAVEUSD long — 6 Nov 2026 (expired)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 132.05 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 132.01 with a price move of -0.03%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-06 14:53 |
| Entry | 132.05 |
| Stop-loss | 128.75 |
| Take-profit 1 | 134.51 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 136.15 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 132.01 |
| Realized P&L | -0.03% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m bull, 4h bear, 15m/1h mixed), ADX_1h 9.8 slope +0.17 (dead-weak, barely firming), choppiness 59 (near range-bound), ER-10 0.21 / ER-30 0.05 (nets nowhere), Hurst 0.37 mean-reverting, HMM calm 0.999 — a low-trend-quality, chop-prone tape with a fresh short-term up-tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: LONG lean — unlike the prior short-bias runs where OI was bleeding, OI is now ACCELERATING UP (oi_5m_z +1.53, oi_15m_z +1.44, agg_oi +0.46% 24h, momentum accelerating_up) alongside a fresh +2.59% 4h impulse, 5m bull-aligned stack, and top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.21, account 1.71). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the OI-building + fresh-impulse + top-trader-long cluster is the strongest tell — real money adding into a bounce off the 5d-low vicinity (+6.6% above 5d-low), with positive funding (z +1.10, agg z +0.85) confirming longs are paying to hold, trend-aligned with the 5m/short-term stack even though 4h remains bearish. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h EMA stack is bear_aligned and broad market is red (total mcap -7.9%, SPX -4.4%, VIX +70%) — a macro risk-off leg down would overwhelm the local long and flip OI build into a long-liquidation cascade. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 132.05; stop below the recent impulse base / local structure at 128.75 (-2.50%, ~0.7x the 3.68% 24h traversal, beyond invalidation); take_profit_1 at 136.15 (+3.10%, R:R ~1.24, inside 1.5x/4% clamps) targeting the 5d-high zone (-4% from there). 6. EXPECTATION: thin-but-real lean on a chop tape with macro headwind — p_tp1 43, p_sl 38, p_expire 19.
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