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DOGEUSD short — 6 Nov 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.07287 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.07192 with a price move of +1.30%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-06 14:53 |
| Entry | 0.07287 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07452 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.071688 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.0709 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.07192 |
| Realized P&L | +1.30% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 0/4 alignment but 1h+4h EMA stacks both bear_aligned, 1h ADX 32.7 with slope -5.7 (strong trend but FADING), choppiness 49.6 (mid/neutral), ER-10 0.49 / ER-30 0.34, Hurst 0.40 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 99.9% — a bear trend that is cooling, with a short-term bounce underway (net +0.70% 4h, +1.07% 12h, still -1.94% 24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: short — the HTF stack is bear and the 24h move is down, but the lean is weakened by fading ADX, a fresh 4h/12h bounce, and 5m going bull_aligned; still, trend + lower-TF rejection favor the downside continuation over a reversal. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — 1h/4h bear EMA stacks, taker ratio 0.87 (sellers dominant), agg OI delta -1.9% and Binance OI unwinding (-2.4%), price sitting -1.42z below 20d mean under a broad crypto risk-off (total mcap -7.9% 24h, SPX -4.4%, VIX +70%, F&G 28 Fear) which caps bounces. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-traders are heavily long (pos ratio 2.97, account 3.30) and OI momentum is accelerating_up with the 4h bounce — if this bounce reclaims the 5d-high region (~0.0776) the short invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.072870; stop_loss 0.074520 above the recent bounce high / structural invalidation (~2.26% / within 1h atr~1% over multi-hour; ~0.9x rv-scaled); take_profit_1 0.070900 at the 5d-low zone, ~2.70% down, R:R ~1.19, inside clamps and reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 2.2%. 6. EXPECTATION: moderate edge, bounce risk and top-trader long skew temper it.
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