AAVEUSD short — 29 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 95.29 and stopped out at 97.85 after 11.1 hours, closing at -2.69%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-29 21:36 |
| Entry | 95.29 |
| Stop-loss | 97.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 92.986 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 91.45 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 97.85 |
| Realized P&L | -2.69% |
| Time open | 11.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (2/4), 1h ADX 18 / adx_20 15 — weak trend, but 5m/15m EMA stacks bear_aligned with RSI 30-38 and price -5.7% on the day; funding_z deeply negative (-3.4) and OI collapsing (-9.6% 24h, oi_5m_z -2.6, accelerating_down) — this is an active bearish flush, not clean trend but clear downside momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: short — net moves 4h/12h/24h all negative and stacking, near-term EMAs bearish, RV in 99th pctile (violent), only counter is top-trader pos ratio still long (1.47), which in a falling market is trapped longs, not a floor. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned-short on the intraday tape — accelerating_down OI plus deeply negative funding_z means longs are unwinding/getting squeezed; the near-term momentum cluster all points lower and the 4h RSI at 43 leaves room to fall. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits +4.9% off 5d low and top-traders are heavily long — a reclaim of ~97.5 with RSI recovery would signal the flush is exhausting and reverse me. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 95.29, stop above the recent consolidation/invalidation at 97.85 (2.7% — beyond the reclaim zone, sized to high RV), TP1 stretch at 91.10 (~4.4% down, near the 5d-low region, R:R ~1.6). 6. EXPECTATION: high RV supports traversal but top-trader long-skew and proximity to 5d low temper conviction.
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