BTCUSD short — 29 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 63,325.9 and stopped out at 64,050 after 60 minutes, closing at -1.14%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-29 21:06 |
| Entry | 63,325.9 |
| Stop-loss | 64,050 |
| Take-profit 1 | 62,674.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 62,239.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 64,050 |
| Realized P&L | -1.14% |
| Time open | 60 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (1h/5m bear_aligned, 4h/15m mixed), ADX_1h 12.8 and falling (slope -1.0), Hurst 0.48, choppiness 57 — a weak/chop regime with a fresh downside impulse, not a clean trend; funding slightly negative, HMM calm but RV at 99th pctile. 2. LEAN CHECK: short-leaning — fresh momentum is down (net_4h -1.44%, net_12h -2.07%), OI accelerating_down confirming the flush, price near 5d low with z-score -1.71 (stretched). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the flow cluster confirms downside continuation — oi_momentum accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.77), agg_oi_24h -1.28%, taker ratio 0.968 (mild sell tilt), Fear&Greed 29, and price broke to fresh 5d lows; prior BTC shorts in this exact flow config won repeatedly. 4. PRE-MORTEM: z-score -1.71 and price sitting right on 5d low (+0.38%) means this is stretched for a mean-reversion bounce, and top-traders are net long (pos ratio 1.55) — a reclaim of ~63,700 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 63,326; stop above the invalidation reclaim zone at 64,050 (~1.14%); stretch TP at 62,000 targeting next support below the low (~2.09%, R:R ~1.83). 6. EXPECTATION: stretched tape caps p_sl higher and keeps meaningful expire given weak ADX chop.
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