AAVEUSD short — 1 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 93.15 and hit its target at 90.57 after 8.5 hours, closing at +2.77%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-01 01:36 |
| Entry | 93.15 |
| Stop-loss | 96.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 90.57 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 88.85 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.48 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 90.57 |
| Realized P&L | +2.77% |
| Time open | 8.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX ~25 rising (slope +6.5), 15m ADX 51 bear-aligned, 5m/15m EMAs bear, 1h mixed, 4h still bull but RSI 34 — net a transitional tape with a fresh active downside impulse (net -1.26% 4h, -4.18% 12h, -6.83% 24h); Hurst 0.54 mild persistence, HMM calm. 2. LEAN CHECK: short — momentum is decisively down with OI unwinding, no reclaim of any broken level. 3. THESIS: OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.81, recent-half OI -7.2%, agg OI -9.2%) into a persistent price decline means longs are capitulating rather than adding — sellers in control; taker 1h 0.68 confirms fresh selling, and 15m ADX 51 shows the down-leg has real force. Counter is top-trader pos ratio 1.42 long-skewed (they lean long and are underwater). 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is only +1.47% off the 5d low and z-score -1.27 — oversold RSI (1h 32) risks a mean-reversion bounce that reclaims ~95 and invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 93.15; stop above the recent consolidation shelf and prior 4h structure at 96.05 (~3.1% risk, beyond the reclaim level); stretch TP at 88.85 (~4.6% below, ~1.5x risk) toward a fresh multi-week low, reachable given avg 24h traversal 3.1% and elevated RV. 6. EXPECTATION: down-impulse favored but oversold-bounce risk and expiry drag are real.
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