AAVEUSD short — 4 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 90.1969 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 91.1 with a price move of -1.00%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-04 15:22 |
| Entry | 90.1969 |
| Stop-loss | 92.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 88.7888 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 87.85 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.09 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 91.1 |
| Realized P&L | -1.00% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 13.2 (rising slope +3.8 but still sub-15), adx_20 9.9, choppiness 43, ER-10 0.62 but ER-30 0.23, Hurst 0.47, HMM calm — a weak-trend tape with a fresh clean downside impulse layered on top; 5m/15m/1h all bear_aligned, 4h mixed. 2. LEAN CHECK: short — every short intraday timeframe is bear-aligned with oversold RSI (5m 20, 15m 26), net moves stacked negative (-2.3%/4h, -2.5%/12h, -3.5%/24h), and this asset's track record shows shorts winning repeatedly in exactly this transitional-flush setup. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the intraday EMA stack is uniformly bearish with an active down-impulse and 4h liquidations 99.8% long-side (longs getting flushed), while OI is rising into the drop (accelerating_up, oi_15m_z +1.17) suggesting fresh shorts pressing. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold (5m 20, 15m 26) and price sits just +0.95% off the 5d/20d/90d low with z-score -1.62 — a mean-reversion bounce off that low would invalidate; top-traders are long-skewed (pos ratio 1.43) which is the one contradicting cluster. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 90.20; stop above the recent 4h swing/EMA reclaim at 92.35 (dist ~2.4%, ~0.5x rv_24h, sensible); take_profit_1 at 87.85 — a push through the nearby 5d low toward fresh lows, ~2.6% away, R:R ~1.1, inside clamps and reachable given avg 24h traversal 2.46% and an active down-move. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold + proximity to the low caps it and raises bounce risk.
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