AAVEUSD short — 7 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 89.2131 and stopped out at 90.85 after 22.6 hours, closing at -1.83%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-07 14:53 |
| Entry | 89.2131 |
| Stop-loss | 90.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 88.0952 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 87.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 90.85 |
| Realized P&L | -1.83% |
| Time open | 22.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 15.9 fading (slope -1.7), adx_20 14.3, choppiness 58.2, ER-10 0.31 / ER-30 0.02 (near-zero directional cleanliness), Hurst 0.49, HMM calm, RV pctile 4.1% (very compressed) — a range-bound/chop tape with a weak-but-consistent bear EMA stack (5m/1h/4h bear-aligned, 15m mixed). 2. LEAN CHECK: mildly short — 4h/1h/5m EMAs bear-aligned, fresh downside intraday momentum (net -0.80% 4h, -1.78% 12h), price z-score -1.16 and OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.54, momentum accelerating_down); but this is countered by top-trader positioning (pos ratio 1.50, account 1.32, rising) and proximity to 5d low (+1.61%). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the bear EMA stack across the higher TFs plus accelerating OI unwind and soft taker ratio (0.846) point down, consistent with the two recent AAVE shorts that won here. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is only +1.61% above the 5d low with heavy short crowding and top-traders net long — a bounce/short-squeeze off support would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 89.21; stop above the recent 1h swing / structural invalidation at 90.85 (~1.84% risk, within the compressed RV envelope); take_profit_1 at 87.35, a stretch just above the 5d-low region (~2.09% reward, R:R ~1.13). 6. EXPECTATION: chop-tape shorts near support and low RV — modest edge with real bounce risk and high expire odds given compressed vol.
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