AAVEUSD short — 9 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 90.5831 and stopped out at 92.267 after 2.2 hours, closing at -1.86%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-09 23:38 |
| Entry | 90.5831 |
| Stop-loss | 92.2 |
| Take-profit 1 | 89.3932 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 88.6 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 92.267 |
| Realized P&L | -1.86% |
| Time open | 2.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 10.9 (deep chop), adx_20 9.0, choppiness 47, ER-30 0.10 (near-zero directional cleanliness), Hurst 0.35 (mean-reverting), HMM calm, RV at 14.8th pctile (compressed), alignment 2/4 mixed with 5m/4h bear-aligned — a low-vol, range-bound tape with a weak bear tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly short — 5m and 4h EMAs bear-aligned, fresh downside momentum (net -0.97% 4h, -0.77% 24h), OI accelerating_down (oi_momentum_state), taker ratio 0.88 (sellers), and Hurst 0.35 (mean-reverting favors continued drift lower off a soft level). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the flow cluster leans short — OI bleeding (oi_5m_z -3.6, accelerating_down), sub-1.0 taker ratio, and fresh negative 4h/24h net moves all point down, aligned with the bear 4h EMA stack. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio 1.48 (net long) and funding_z +1.5 crowded-long — a squeeze-lower is possible but longs unwinding (top_trader_pos_ratio_4h_chg -0.015) actually supports my short; the real invalidation is a reclaim above the 5d-high band / recent consolidation top ~92.0. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 90.58; stop_loss 92.20 (beyond the intraday reclaim level, ~1.8% = ~0.5x the 30d ADR, within stop-width given compressed RV); take_profit_1 88.60, ~2.2% below entry and ~1.2x the stop distance, a structural level toward the 5d-low zone, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.28% and the downside momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape with a weak-but-real bear lean, so meaningful expire probability.
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