DOGEUSD short — 9 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.06961 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.06997 with a price move of -0.52%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-09 23:23 |
| Entry | 0.06961 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07048 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.069034 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.06865 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.10 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.06997 |
| Realized P&L | -0.52% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (0/4 aligned), 1h ADX 19.6 (+0.8 slope, borderline), ADX-20 16, choppiness 41.3, ER-10/30 ~0.42 (moderate), Hurst 0.35 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a soft downtrend inside broadly transitional/chop low-vol tape (RV at 30th pctile). 2. LEAN CHECK: net moves all negative (-1.42%/4h, -0.94%/12h, -1.25%/24h), OI collapsing (oi_5m_z -1.93, accelerating_down, agg OI -1.45%), latest taker 0.565 (heavy sell), recent hourly ratios skewed sell-side — momentum + flow both lean short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — accelerating_down OI with sub-0.6 taker ratio and negative net moves across all horizons; but note 5m/15m RSI oversold (26/28) and price near 5d/20d low, so this is a mature, extended down move. Top-trader pos ratio 2.9 (heavily long) is a contrarian caution. 4. PRE-MORTEM: oversold RSI (26/28) + Hurst 0.35 mean-reversion + price sitting +1.25% above 5d low argues for a bounce; a reclaim of ~0.0700 with taker flow flipping >1.0 invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.06961; stop above recent structure/1h reclaim at 0.07048 (~1.25% risk, within rv range); TP at 0.06865 (~1.38% reward, ~1.1R) targeting a probe below the 5d low, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reverting oversold tape tempers short odds; p_tp1 40 / p_sl 34 / p_expire 26.
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