AAVEUSD short — 10 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 89.96 and hit its target at 88.529 after 16 hours, closing at +1.59%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-10 15:23 |
| Entry | 89.96 |
| Stop-loss | 91.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 88.529 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 87.575 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 88.529 |
| Realized P&L | +1.59% |
| Time open | 16 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 11.8 (chop), adx_20 9.5, choppiness 42.2, ER-30 0.14 (near-zero cleanliness), Hurst 0.32 (mean-reverting), HMM calm, alignment 2/4 mixed — a low-vol, range-bound tape with fresh downside momentum (net -1.88% 4h, -2.17% 24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly short — fresh momentum is down, 5m/4h EMAs bear-aligned, RSI oversold on fast TFs but Hurst mean-reverting so oversold bounces fade; top-trader positioning long-tilted cuts the other way, so this is a thin lean. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is momentum/flow — taker ratio 0.666 (heavy sell pressure this bucket), OI z-scores deeply negative (-3.0/-3.4, longs bleeding out), agg OI -2.7% and price making fresh 4h/24h lows, all trend-aligned to the short side in a mean-reverting tape that just broke lower. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 1.51 (long-tilted) plus oversold RSI (5m 27, 15m 28) could spark a reclaim bounce back above ~91.2 that invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 89.96, stop above the recent structure/reclaim at 91.55 (~1.77% risk, within the ~50% RV / 3% avg daily range band), take_profit_1 at 87.35 stretch toward the 5d-low zone (~2.9% reward, R:R ~1.47x, inside the 1.5x clamp and 4% cap). 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reverting oversold tape caps follow-through; p_tp1 42, p_sl 36, p_expire 22.
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