SOLUSD short — 10 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 75.93 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 75.288 with a price move of +0.85%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-10 15:23 |
| Entry | 75.93 |
| Stop-loss | 77.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 74.892 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 74.2 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 75.288 |
| Realized P&L | +0.85% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 0/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h bull, 4h mixed), ADX_1h 21.9 falling (slope -2.2), Hurst 0.35 (mean-reverting), choppiness 60.3 (borderline chop), ER30 0.085 (nets nowhere), HMM calm — a low-directionality chop regime with a bearish near-term tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: fresh momentum is down (net -1.47% 4h, -1.96% 24h, taker 0.93 sell-heavy last bucket) with OI bleeding (oi_5m_z -1.77, agg OI -6.7%) — short side has the modest edge, but top-traders are heavily long (pos ratio 1.64, account 2.23) which contradicts. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: near-term momentum + OI-unwind align down — price selling off at 5d/20d/90d high area (-1.96% from all), longs deleveraging into a fading bounce; short the fade toward the mid-range. 4. PRE-MORTEM: heavy top-trader long positioning plus oversold 5m/15m RSI (~30) could spark a mean-reversion snapback that reclaims 76.5. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent bounce high / 5d-high zone at 77.35 (~1.9% risk, within rv_24h ~32% intraday span); target the 5d-low pull toward 74.20, ~2.3% reward, R:R ~1.2, clamped inside bounds. 6. EXPECTATION: chop regime with weak trend keeps p_expire meaningful; momentum tilt favors TP modestly over SL.
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