AAVEUSD short — 11 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 87.6485 and hit its target at 86.4494 after 1 hours, closing at +1.37%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-11 14:56 |
| Entry | 87.6485 |
| Stop-loss | 89.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 86.4494 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 85.65 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.05 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 86.4494 |
| Realized P&L | +1.37% |
| Time open | 1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 38.4 rising (slope +2.6), full_bearish MTF alignment 4/4, all TFs bear EMA-stacked, choppiness 46, Hurst 0.42 (mild mean-revert), HMM calm — a genuine, strengthening bear trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly short — trend, momentum (net -3.05% 24h, -1.60% 4h) and MTF all point down; only caveat is deeply oversold RSI (5m 18.6, 1h 28.8) and rolling z -2.46 warning of a bounce. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: full_bearish 4/4 with rising ADX is the dominant cluster; price sits at 5d/20d/90d lows (0% distance) and just made fresh lows on accelerating OI down — trend-aligned short. 4. PRE-MORTEM: oversold RSI + funding_z -2.1 (shorts crowded, negative funding) + z-score -2.46 could trigger a mean-revert squeeze reclaiming ~89.5. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the invalidation reclaim at 89.62 (~2.25% risk, ~0.5x 24h RV of 42.7% annualized ≈ reasonable); TP1 stretch at 85.75 (~2.17% reward, R:R ≈ 0.97 — nudge stop) — set stop 89.55, TP 85.65 for R:R 1.05, structural next leg below round 86. 6. EXPECTATION: trend favors continuation but oversold-bounce risk is real, keep meaningful expire.
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