ETHUSD short — 11 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,876.1 and hit its target at 1,864.6 after 10 minutes, closing at +0.61%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-11 15:26 |
| Entry | 1,876.1 |
| Stop-loss | 1,892.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,864.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,857 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.17 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 1,864.6 |
| Realized P&L | +0.61% |
| Time open | 10 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (2/4, all four TFs EMA-mixed), ADX_1h 26 but slope -2.75 (fading), Hurst 0.38 (mean-reverting), choppiness 50.7, ER-10 0.07 (nets nowhere), HMM calm, F&G 29 Fear — a fading, low-vol chop with a fresh downward impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — net -0.83% over last 4h is the freshest momentum, taker ratio 0.855 sell-skewed, OI accelerating_down (5m z -2.18, 15m z -2.65) as price fades. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — aggressive OI unwind (agg_oi_24h -0.41, oi_change_24h -0.55) with sell-side takers and a fresh 4h down-impulse under a mixed/fading EMA structure; this points lower toward the 5d low. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio 1.36 long (and 1.92 account ratio) plus funding still positive z +1.1 — if longs defend and reclaim ~1885, the fade fails and mean-reversion snaps up. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1876.12; stop above the recent minor swing/reclaim zone at 1892.5 (~0.87% risk, well within rv_24h/atr); target the 5d-low area at 1857 (~1.02% reward), R:R ~1.17, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 0.82% and this being an active down-impulse. 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reverting Hurst and long-heavy top traders cap downside conviction, so meaningful expire probability.
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