AAVEUSD short — 11 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 86.8 and stopped out at 89.07 after 9 hours, closing at -2.62%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-11 16:11 |
| Entry | 86.8 |
| Stop-loss | 89.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 85.18 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 84.1 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 89.07 |
| Realized P&L | -2.62% |
| Time open | 9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 42.8 rising (slope +6.3), full_bearish MTF alignment 4/4 with all TFs bear EMA-stacked, choppiness 40, Hurst 0.41 (mild mean-revert), HMM calm — a genuine, strengthening bear trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly short — trend, momentum (net -2.98% 24h, -2.44% 4h) and OI (accelerating_down, agg OI -30% 24h) all align down; only caveat is deeply oversold RSI (15m 19.8, 1h 23.9) and z-score -3.1. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: full_bearish 4/4 with strongest-and-rising ADX plus OI accelerating down and agg OI collapsing -30% confirms leveraged longs unwinding into the drop — trend-aligned continuation, and this asset's recent same-regime shorts are winning (2 wins, 1 expire, 1 loss). 4. PRE-MORTEM: extreme oversold (1h RSI 24, z -3.1, sitting +0.09% off 90d low) plus top-trader position ratio 1.58 long — an oversold snap-back reclaim above ~89 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 86.80, stop 89.05 above the reclaim zone and recent bounce structure (~2.6% ≈ 0.6x 24h RV, appropriate for the elevated vol), take_profit_1 84.10 targeting a push below the 90d low, ~3.1% down giving R:R ~1.2. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but deeply oversold at multi-week low tempers downside follow-through and raises snap-back odds.
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