BTCUSD short — 11 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 63,347.1 and stopped out at 64,180 after 15.1 hours, closing at -1.31%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-11 18:56 |
| Entry | 63,347.1 |
| Stop-loss | 64,180 |
| Take-profit 1 | 62,742.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 62,340 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 64,180 |
| Realized P&L | -1.31% |
| Time open | 15.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 4/4 with 5m/15m/1h EMA all bear_aligned (4h mixed), ADX_1h 29.4 with slope +3.6 (strengthening), choppiness 37.6 (trending), ER_10 0.48 — a genuine down-trend that is strengthening, not chop; HMM calm, Hurst 0.37 mild mean-reversion is the only caveat. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear short lean — net moves negative across 4h/12h/24h (-0.64/-0.94/-0.83%), price pinned at 5d/20d/90d low (-2.96% from high, +0.00% from 5d low), bear EMA stacks strengthening. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — 3 lower-TF bear stacks with rising ADX and price making fresh lows is the strongest cluster; F&G 29 Fear and total mcap -1.4% add macro tailwind. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h/15m RSI deeply oversold (29) + top-trader pos ratio 1.61 long + taker 1.38 buy-heavy this hour signal a possible oversold bounce/reclaim that would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 63,347; stop above recent structure/the intraday micro-swing at 64,180 (~1.31% up, within the ~2% 24h range); take_profit_1 at 62,340 (~1.59% down, R:R ~1.2), a reachable structural extension of the fresh-lows breakdown inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but oversold-bounce risk and mean-reverting Hurst temper it — p_tp1 44 / p_sl 33 / p_expire 23.
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