AAVEUSD short — 16 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 86.26 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 86.15 with a price move of +0.13%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-16 00:13 |
| Entry | 86.26 |
| Stop-loss | 87.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 85.114 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 84.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 86.15 |
| Realized P&L | +0.13% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bearish MTF 4/4, all TFs bear EMA-stacked, but 1h ADX only 17.5 (slope +1.2, weak), choppiness 49, ER-30 0.04 (nets nowhere), Hurst 0.34 (mean-revert), HMM calm — a bear-tilted but weak/choppy tape, not a clean strengthening trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly short — MTF alignment, OI accelerating_down (oi_15m_z -2.23, agg OI -2.2%), recent -0.66% 4h momentum all lean down; the caveat is deep oversold (5m RSI 13, rolling_z -1.69, 24h RV at 7th pctile = compressed) and top-traders net long (pos ratio 1.33). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend+flow alignment — bear-stacked all TFs plus accelerating_down OI unwinding into weakness, trend-aligned short. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold 5m/15m RSI plus compressed 24h RV can snap a mean-revert bounce; a reclaim above the 5d-high proximity / a taker-flow flip would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 86.26, stop above recent structure at 87.85 (~1.84%, within RV range and beyond the near swing/invalidation), take_profit_1 at 84.35 (~2.21% down, ~1.2x stop distance, toward the 5d-low zone). 6. EXPECTATION: weak trend + oversold caps conviction; realistic split.
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