AAVEUSD short — 17 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 85.98 and stopped out at 87.55 after 14.6 hours, closing at -1.83%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-17 00:13 |
| Entry | 85.98 |
| Stop-loss | 87.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 84.852 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 84.1 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 87.55 |
| Realized P&L | -1.83% |
| Time open | 14.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bearish MTF 4/4, all TFs bear EMA-stacked, 1h ADX 20.3 rising (slope +2.9), choppiness 45.7, Hurst 0.35 (mean-revert), HMM calm — a genuine but modest bear trend with recent downside momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: short — trend, structure, and OI (accelerating_down, oi_15m_z -1.26, agg OI -0.30/-1.7%) point down; net -0.90% 4h confirms near-term momentum. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — full bearish MTF stack with rising ADX and accelerating_down OI is the strongest cluster, and this asset's short calls in bear_trend have repeatedly won. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold (rolling_z -1.38, near 20d/90d low, RSI mid-40s) plus top-trader ratio 1.34 long and taker 1.35 buy — a bounce back over the 5d region invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 85.98; stop 87.55 beyond the recent minor bounce/consolidation shelf (~1.8% ≈ 0.6x rv path); take_profit_1 84.10 (~2.2% below), R:R ~1.2, a structural push toward the 5d-low region reachable within 24h given avg 24h move ~1.27% but RV allows the stretch. 6. EXPECTATION: modest edge with oversold caveat and thin OI.
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